Earthquake Simulators Lab (EQSim)

The lab aims to bring together earthquake simulator developers and their end-users to foster collaboration and a comprehensive understanding between community challenges – from the technical/computational questions of the simulators to the real world geological, seismological and engineering applications. In particular, the lab focuses on:

  • Assessing the viability and applicability of earthquake simulators for seismic hazard analysis, particularly probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and also probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA).
  • Providing a comprehensive overview of simulator types, technical features, and implications for fault activity and seismic hazard modeling.
  • Identifying limitations and solutions to earthquake simulator applications.

Core members: Octavi Gómez (IGME-CSIC, Spain), Paula Herrero-Barbero (GEO3BCN-CSIC, Spain), Sylvain Michel (GeoAzur, France), Alessandro Verdecchia (RUB, Germany), Olaf Zielke (KAUST, Saudi Arabia), Hideo Aochi (BRGM, France)

Contact: Paula Herrero-Barbero (p.herrero@igme.es); Octavi Gómez (ogomez.novell@igme.es)

Key questions

  • How can earthquake simulators improve PSHA models and what limitations must be addressed?
  • Are fully physics-based earthquake forecasts and PSHA ready to replace or complement traditional methods?
  • How can objectivity in simulation parametrizations be improved?
  • Can earthquake simulators reliably model surface rupturing processes for FDHA applications?
  • How can we reliably validate the simulations (e.g., the role of geological data)
  • Can geoscientists’ involvement in the development of earthquake simulation workflows be enhanced?

Meetings

The core members had a first meeting in which the questions and constitutive objectives of the lab were defined (find the minutes here).

As first activities, we are planning a series of introductory short online talks every 1-2 months in which different earthquake simulator types will be presented by invited experts. The objective of these initial talks is to have a comprehensive mind map of the state of the art regarding earthquake simulators and the paths where the research field is evolving. For these meetings we also aim to enhance discussion, and foster exchange and community among the attendees.

We are also planning to hold a scientific session focused on earthquake simulators for PSHA
in the upcoming Fault2SHA workshop that will be held in Vienna in 2026.

Stay tuned for more updates.

Ongoing PhD thesis:

  • Khatereh Saghatforoush. “Modelling synthetic catalogues of earthquake ruptures in complex interacting fault systems”. Supervisors: B. Pace, A. Verdecchia, F. Visini, L. Peruzza, in collaboration with O. Zielke and O. Gomez Novell.

Publications you must read

Gómez-Novell, O., Visini, F., Pace, B., Álvarez-Gómez, J. A., & Herrero-Barbero, P. (2025). A Benchmarking Method to Rank the Performance of Physics-Based Earthquake Simulations. Seismological Research Letters, 96(1), 231–243. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220240027 Cite
Rodriguez Piceda, C., Mildon, Z. K., Van Den Ende, M., Ampuero, J., & Andrews, B. J. (2025). Normal Fault Interactions in Seismic Cycles and the Impact of Fault Network Geometry. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 130(4), e2024JB030382. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JB030382 Cite Download
Taufiqurrahman, T., Gabriel, A.-A., Li, D., Ulrich, T., Li, B., Carena, S., Verdecchia, A., & Gallovič, F. (2023). Dynamics, interactions and delays of the 2019 Ridgecrest rupture sequence. Nature, 618(7964), 308–315. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-05985-x Cite Download
Álvarez-Gómez, J. A., Herrero-Barbero, P., & Martínez-Díaz, J. J. (2023). Seismogenic potential and tsunami threat of the strike-slip Carboneras fault in the western Mediterranean from physics-based earthquake simulations. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 23(6), 2031–2052. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023 Cite Download
Zielke, O., & Mai, P. M. (2023). MCQsim: A Multicycle Earthquake Simulator. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 113(3), 889–908. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120220248 Cite
Herrero-Barbero, P., Álvarez-Gómez, J. A., Tsige, M., & Martínez-Díaz, J. J. (2023). Deterministic seismic hazard analysis from physics-based earthquake simulations in the Eastern Betics (SE Iberia). Engineering Geology, 327, 107364. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2023.107364 Cite
Chartier, T., Scotti, O., Lyon-Caen, H., Richard-Dinger, K., Dieterich, J. H., & Shaw, B. E. (2021). Modelling earthquake rates and associated uncertainties in the Marmara Region, Turkey. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 21(8), 2733–2751. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2733-2021 Cite Download
Herrero‐Barbero, P., Álvarez‐Gómez, J. A., Williams, C., Villamor, P., Insua‐Arévalo, J. M., Alonso‐Henar, J., & Martínez‐Díaz, J. J. (2021). Physics‐Based Earthquake Simulations in Slow‐Moving Faults: A Case Study From the Eastern Betic Shear Zone (SE Iberian Peninsula). Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 126(5), e2020JB021133. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JB021133 Cite Download
Verdecchia, A., Carena, S., Pace, B., & DuRoss, C. B. (2019). The effect of stress changes on time-dependent earthquake probabilities for the central Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah, USA. Geophysical Journal International, ggz336. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggz336 Cite Download
Verdecchia, A., Pace, B., Visini, F., Scotti, O., Peruzza, L., & Benedetti, L. (2018). The Role of Viscoelastic Stress Transfer in Long‐Term Earthquake Cascades: Insights After the Central Italy 2016–2017 Seismic Sequence. Tectonics, 37(10), 3411–3428. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018TC005110 Cite Download
Durand, V., Hok, S., Boiselet, A., Bernard, P., & Scotti, O. (2016). Dynamic rupture simulations on a fault network in the Corinth Rift. Geophysical Journal International, ggw466. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggw466 Cite Download
Verdecchia, A., & Carena, S. (2016). Coulomb stress evolution in a diffuse plate boundary: 1400 years of earthquakes in eastern California and western Nevada, USA: STRESS EVOLUTION IN EAST CALIFORNIA AND WEST NEVADA. Tectonics, 35(8), 1793–1811. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015TC004091 Cite
Verdecchia, A., & Carena, S. (2015). One hundred and fifty years of Coulomb stress history along the California-Nevada border, USA: Coulomb stress history CA-NV border. Tectonics, 34(2), 213–231. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014TC003746 Cite Download
Takao, M., Tsuchiyama, J., Annaka, T., & Kurita, T. (2013). Application of Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis in Japan. Journal of Japan Association for Earthquake Engineering, 13(1), 17–36. https://doi.org/10.5610/jaee.13.17 Cite Download
Aochi, H., Cushing, M., Scotti, O., & Berge-Thierry, C. (2006). Estimating rupture scenario likelihood based on dynamic rupture simulations: the example of the segmented Middle Durance fault, southeastern France. Geophysical Journal International, 165(2), 436–446. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.02842.x Cite Download